Why the Odds are Against a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

By Daniel Nardini

Lawndale News Chicago's Bilingual Newspaper - CommentaryThere are no guarantees to anything in life, and the question of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan is certainly one of them. There seems to be just as many “experts” who believe that China will invade Taiwan just as there are many who say China will not invade Taiwan. Unless and if an invasion ever comes up, at this time it is all speculation. For my view, the aspect of China invading Taiwan will do far more harm to China than any good.

Such an invasion would be detected by America’s sophisticated spy satellite system months before such a thing could occur. The U.S. military was able to detect the Russian build-up before its invasion of Ukraine. For an invasion to take place, it would take China months to prepare for an all-out attack which by then would be detected by the United States which would then warn Taiwan. It would also give the United States time to prepare a counter-offensive strategy to blunt a Chinese attack. Add to this the fact that China has never carried out a successful sea attack. It is one thing to parade a large navy around, but another to actually deploy it for a military operation. The blockade of Taiwan last August was no exception.

Preparing a mobilization of the size and scale the Chinese military would need to carry out would become known no matter how much the Chinese government tries to keep everyone in the dark. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the United States would be looking more at what possible military preparations are occurring than it did before. Keep in mind that while Ukraine had eight years to prepare for a possible invasion by Russia, Taiwan has had over 70 years for such a thing. When I lived in Taiwan, the military there had already prepared for every bridge built to be collapsed or taken out altogether to prevent any invading force from crossing a river or a lake.

On top of this, special military bunkers and caves have been built in the eastern side of the island where missiles and military jets cannot destroy them. There are networks and tunnels all throughout Taiwan’s mountain chain where the Taiwanese military could launch surprise attacks. This goes on the premise that the United States and Japan do not get involved in such a war, which they will. If you look at the odds, they go very much against China, and if China loses it will not just be an invasion foiled, but Taiwan, the United States and Japan will carry the war to China’s cities and provinces. This will be a war of such utter destruction that China most likely will never recover from it. It will mean the end of the ruling Communist Party of China and probably the break-up of the whole country. One can only hope that the risks of war on this scale will prevent China from starting one in the first place.

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