By Daniel Nardini
Almost a generation ago, I had predicted and had called for countries like Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to acquire nuclear weapons. I had been saying this in the late 1990’s. In that time period, I knew that so many experts and East Asia analysts of the time would have ridiculed what I said as “insane” and “pro-war” logic. They stated that the United States was keeping the balance of power against China and North Korea, and that a nuclear arms proliferation race was not only unnecessary but would make the world a far more dangerous place. Unlike the experts of the time, I envisaged a world where the United States might not be there.
That world has come. Already under current U.S. President Donald Trump, he seems to have largely abandoned NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), and the European Union is left largely to its own devices to try and figure out how to help Ukraine in fighting the Russian invasion on its land. Trump is keeping the United States out of the conflict, and while America remains officially in NATO, it is doing nothing to strengthen the alliance. This is the exact reverse of what it had done for 80 years before Trump became president again in 2024. In too many ways, Trump is reducing Europe to what it was in the 1920’s and 1930’s—a very unstable period in its history. Only it is Russia, and not Germany, that is the antagonist to worry about.
Turning to East Asia, while the United States remains officially committed to the defense of Japan, South Korea and to an extent Taiwan, the United States seems to be having a rather stand-off type of approach with China. This is bad because it is sending mixed signals to the Chinese government that it may not entirely fulfill its obligation to protecting Taiwan. This is bad, because Taiwan as I have sad before is crucial to defending not only the Philippines but the American territories of Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and American Samoa from Chinese attack. Lately, the Trump administration has said it would give South Korea a nuclear-powered submarine. This is a reversal of a long-standing United States policy of NOT giving any of its allies any type of nuclear or nuclear-capable weapons.
What is being baked into this is that it is now fine for Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to develop and deploy nuclear weapons and the delivery systems that can carry these weapons. Since Taiwan is now not sure that America will be there to cover its back, they are now considering the very weaponry that the United States had discouraged them from developing. With NOTHING else guaranteed, developing and deploying nuclear weapons may be the best and maybe only real option for Taiwan. The Taiwanese saw what happened to Ukraine when it gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for empty promises that its territorial integrity would be respected. The whole world has seen how that went, and this lesson has not been lost on Taiwan.
The lesson has not been lost on South Korea or Japan either. President Trump did not have to ask for these two countries to increase their military budgets; these countries have already. The United States has been run by feeble old men ever since 2020, and this has not given confidence to any country in East Asia. In their view, having advanced weapons systems and advanced nuclear weapons now make perfect sense. As the United States is retreating as a major global power, smaller countries now have to rely on what they have and what they need to protect themselves. Yes, it does make the world far more dangerous, but it has become far more dangerous out of necessity.
A Dark Vision Coming True
By Daniel Nardini
That world has come. Already under current U.S. President Donald Trump, he seems to have largely abandoned NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), and the European Union is left largely to its own devices to try and figure out how to help Ukraine in fighting the Russian invasion on its land. Trump is keeping the United States out of the conflict, and while America remains officially in NATO, it is doing nothing to strengthen the alliance. This is the exact reverse of what it had done for 80 years before Trump became president again in 2024. In too many ways, Trump is reducing Europe to what it was in the 1920’s and 1930’s—a very unstable period in its history. Only it is Russia, and not Germany, that is the antagonist to worry about.
Turning to East Asia, while the United States remains officially committed to the defense of Japan, South Korea and to an extent Taiwan, the United States seems to be having a rather stand-off type of approach with China. This is bad because it is sending mixed signals to the Chinese government that it may not entirely fulfill its obligation to protecting Taiwan. This is bad, because Taiwan as I have sad before is crucial to defending not only the Philippines but the American territories of Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and American Samoa from Chinese attack. Lately, the Trump administration has said it would give South Korea a nuclear-powered submarine. This is a reversal of a long-standing United States policy of NOT giving any of its allies any type of nuclear or nuclear-capable weapons.
What is being baked into this is that it is now fine for Japan, South Korea and Taiwan to develop and deploy nuclear weapons and the delivery systems that can carry these weapons. Since Taiwan is now not sure that America will be there to cover its back, they are now considering the very weaponry that the United States had discouraged them from developing. With NOTHING else guaranteed, developing and deploying nuclear weapons may be the best and maybe only real option for Taiwan. The Taiwanese saw what happened to Ukraine when it gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for empty promises that its territorial integrity would be respected. The whole world has seen how that went, and this lesson has not been lost on Taiwan.
The lesson has not been lost on South Korea or Japan either. President Trump did not have to ask for these two countries to increase their military budgets; these countries have already. The United States has been run by feeble old men ever since 2020, and this has not given confidence to any country in East Asia. In their view, having advanced weapons systems and advanced nuclear weapons now make perfect sense. As the United States is retreating as a major global power, smaller countries now have to rely on what they have and what they need to protect themselves. Yes, it does make the world far more dangerous, but it has become far more dangerous out of necessity.