By: Daniel Nardini
It seems almost certain that Mexican presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will win the presidential election on July 1st. It also seems certain that Obrador will set Mexico on a political, social and economic trajectory we can only guess at. The left wing outsider, who had always gone against the former ruling party the Institutional Revolutionary Party and the right-center National Action Party, has always believed that he was robbed of winning previous national elections. He may have been right—previous elections were in many states questionable and corruption has been a major problem under the former Institutional Revolutionary Party. Many Mexicans seem clearly tired of the corruption, the lack of government transparency, and the continuing drug war with the cartels. No amount of economic prosperity has helped any of the other contenders in this presidential election.
His presidency seems almost certain. One possible danger of Obrador’s administration will be a possible open conflict with the United States. Obrador’s anti-American hostility will match U.S. President Donald Trump’s openly anti-Mexican policies. Trump wants to “renegotiate” the entire North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), so that it would “favor” the United States. Trump has threatened that if he does not get his way, then he will walk away. This is unlikely because Trump needs approval from the U.S. Congress to renounce NAFTA. However, Obrador can just as easily argue the same thing and walk away from it—leaving many American companies with both factories and investments in Mexico wondering what to do. Worse, Obrador has encouraged Mexicans to go to the United States regardless of Trump’s tough U.S.-Mexico border stance, and Obrador may not stop Central American refugees from crossing through Mexico to go to the United States (something that in large part Mexico is doing now). Additionally, Obrador could start making economic and even military as well as partner alliance with left wing regimes in the Americas such as with Nicaragua, Bolivia, Venezuela, and Ecuador. A left wing populist counterpart to Trump with just as big an ego is truly a dark spectre for both Mexico and the United States.
Dark Spectre to the South
By: Daniel Nardini
His presidency seems almost certain. One possible danger of Obrador’s administration will be a possible open conflict with the United States. Obrador’s anti-American hostility will match U.S. President Donald Trump’s openly anti-Mexican policies. Trump wants to “renegotiate” the entire North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), so that it would “favor” the United States. Trump has threatened that if he does not get his way, then he will walk away. This is unlikely because Trump needs approval from the U.S. Congress to renounce NAFTA. However, Obrador can just as easily argue the same thing and walk away from it—leaving many American companies with both factories and investments in Mexico wondering what to do. Worse, Obrador has encouraged Mexicans to go to the United States regardless of Trump’s tough U.S.-Mexico border stance, and Obrador may not stop Central American refugees from crossing through Mexico to go to the United States (something that in large part Mexico is doing now). Additionally, Obrador could start making economic and even military as well as partner alliance with left wing regimes in the Americas such as with Nicaragua, Bolivia, Venezuela, and Ecuador. A left wing populist counterpart to Trump with just as big an ego is truly a dark spectre for both Mexico and the United States.