The Turn of the Political Cycle

By Daniel Nardini

Lawndale News Chicago's Bilingual Newspaper - CommentaryIf the Republican Party is not shaking in their shoes now, they should be. The Democratic Party retook the State of Virginia from the Republicans, kept the State of New Jersey, won the mayorship of New York City, and Proposition 50 in California was passed. All of this was not just defeat for the Republicans—it was a grand slaughter. In too many ways this is now portending more than ever that the Republicans are heading to crashing and burning in the midterm elections for 2026. I find it all the more hard to believe to accept because the Republicans could and should HAVE WON. If the Republicans had simply carried on with business as usual and U.S. President Donald Trump had just golfed all day then the odds would have favored the Republican Party. The presidential honeymoon should have lasted for at least a year, maybe even two. But obviously this is not what happened. Trump went over a cliff in terms of what extreme policies he inaugurated.

Trump went all in on not only stiffing Americans with tariff polices that are the domain of the U.S. Congress, but Trump also took control of everything that Congress did period. In other words he put the Republican Congress to sleep and the Republicans stupidly acquiesced to taking their power. Then he started a virtual war on the Latino communities throughout the entire country which pushed millions of Latinos to vote overwhelmingly against the Republicans. Finally, inflation has become an issue that many Americans now see as the fault of the Republicans because they betrayed their pledge to bring food prices and services down. What this means is that the Republicans are now very much on the back foot. If the Republicans do not reopen the federal government soon then things will only get worse for them. If they do reopen the federal government, the Republicans will have to deal with the Epstein files which the Democrats will push to the extreme. Despite how bad things are for the Republicans now, the odds are Trump will push the Republicans further to the extreme right which will only mean that the Democrat tsunami will overrun the country.

The odds are Trump will pull out all of the stops to go even more crazy. This will make the Republican Party crash and burn even more. The odds are that many of the Republican Party will get cold feet with his extreme policies, and there will be even more cracks in that party. We have already seen this with some Republicans siding with the Democrats to roll back Trump’s tariffs on Brazil. Truth be told, Trump does not and most probably will not care what actions he takes because he will either die in office or not worry about being held accountable because of presidential immunity. Other Republicans are now beginning to realize they have no such protection. A growing number of Republicans are now realizing their days might be numbered, and even though they are deathly afraid of Trump even now some are beginning to break ranks because they are becoming afraid of the growing Democrat tsunami.

In too many ways, what we are seeing now is paralleling what happened to the events in 2016 to 2018. Even though Trump then did not carry out as extreme policies in his first term as he is doing now, his policies proved unpopular then and this led to the Democrats winning the entire U.S. Congress. In many ways, we are seeing what may be the beginning of the end of the second Trump term. Trump obviously cares nothing about history, and as a result he is making the same blunders as he did in his first term. As much as he is trying to prevent what is happening and what will happen, he in my view cannot stop the change in the political cycle. In my view, Trump cannot stop history now anymore than he could almost eight years before.

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