By Daniel Nardini
It may be the be the biggest accident in history that may have saved Taiwan, and possibly the world. Chinese Premier (read dictator for life) Xi Jinping purged his military. He took out a lot of his generals including his top general Zhang Youxia. Why is taking out Zhang Youxia important? General Zhang has three things China’s military needs. He is the last war experienced combat general in the Chinese military. He was a veteran of the Sino-Vietnamese War in 1979. Second, he was a pragmatic voice in China’s military affairs. If there ever is a war, this is the man the Chinese People’s Liberation Army needs. He understood the planning and strategy needed to fight a successful war; especially a possible invasion against Taiwan. Finally, he was part of a stable command structure which could carry out any war or defend the country. A man like Zhang Youxia is the type of general China will need to not only keep the Chinese command structure intact but also help further modernize the military.
Why did Premier Xi purge his military at a time like this? We can only speculate. However, history could be our guide in what has happened with China’s military. A similar event happened in the history of the Soviet Union under the cruel dictator Josef Stalin. Stalin became obsessed with complete and total loyalty towards him, and he saw the top generals of his day as a threat to his power. So he conducted a deadly purge of his military. Just about every general was removed and shot. Almost his entire senior and even junior officer staff was removed and shot. Stalin did it because he wanted total loyalty even if those whom he appointed were incompetent. Not only did Stalin decapitate his military; he made it a far less competent fighting force. This was proven in the Soviet Union’s war against the small country of Finland known as the Winter War (1939-1940). Even though the Soviet military had ten times the manpower of the Finnish military, the Finnish military slaughtered five times the soldiers the Soviets sent against them. Stalin’s military purge proved just as nearly fatal for his country when the Germans invaded the Soviet Union in 1941. The Soviet armed forces lost nearly one-third of its military forces in that year alone.
Premier Xi is doing the same thing as Stalin did. Like Stalin, he wants complete and total loyalty to him. So Premier Xi will keep only those military officers “loyal” to him regardless of their competency. What will this mean for the Chinese military? With China’s best generals gone, the only generals and most officers who will be left will be in command only for their loyalty to Premier Xi. The problem, as has been proven in history, is that when any military has been purged of its most competent and capable leadership, it will be no match for a military with competent leadership and capable of fighting. From what indications there are coming out of China, its military morale is sinking, and this purge does not direct where the country’s resources should go. The military command structure Premier Xi purged may be so disrupted that it will take years to rebuild it. For Taiwan, this gives the country time to prepare for any possible attack against it. More, it may mean that China’s military will be so incompetent the United States may not have to come to the defense of Taiwan as stipulated in the Taiwan Relations Act. This may mean thousands or tens of thousands of American soldiers may NOT have to fight and die in a war they will most probably not understand. Of course, we really do not know what the future will bring. No one can guess whether Xi Jinping will ever go to war. We can only hope that it will be the war that may never happen.
The War That May Never Come
By Daniel Nardini
Why did Premier Xi purge his military at a time like this? We can only speculate. However, history could be our guide in what has happened with China’s military. A similar event happened in the history of the Soviet Union under the cruel dictator Josef Stalin. Stalin became obsessed with complete and total loyalty towards him, and he saw the top generals of his day as a threat to his power. So he conducted a deadly purge of his military. Just about every general was removed and shot. Almost his entire senior and even junior officer staff was removed and shot. Stalin did it because he wanted total loyalty even if those whom he appointed were incompetent. Not only did Stalin decapitate his military; he made it a far less competent fighting force. This was proven in the Soviet Union’s war against the small country of Finland known as the Winter War (1939-1940). Even though the Soviet military had ten times the manpower of the Finnish military, the Finnish military slaughtered five times the soldiers the Soviets sent against them. Stalin’s military purge proved just as nearly fatal for his country when the Germans invaded the Soviet Union in 1941. The Soviet armed forces lost nearly one-third of its military forces in that year alone.
Premier Xi is doing the same thing as Stalin did. Like Stalin, he wants complete and total loyalty to him. So Premier Xi will keep only those military officers “loyal” to him regardless of their competency. What will this mean for the Chinese military? With China’s best generals gone, the only generals and most officers who will be left will be in command only for their loyalty to Premier Xi. The problem, as has been proven in history, is that when any military has been purged of its most competent and capable leadership, it will be no match for a military with competent leadership and capable of fighting. From what indications there are coming out of China, its military morale is sinking, and this purge does not direct where the country’s resources should go. The military command structure Premier Xi purged may be so disrupted that it will take years to rebuild it. For Taiwan, this gives the country time to prepare for any possible attack against it. More, it may mean that China’s military will be so incompetent the United States may not have to come to the defense of Taiwan as stipulated in the Taiwan Relations Act. This may mean thousands or tens of thousands of American soldiers may NOT have to fight and die in a war they will most probably not understand. Of course, we really do not know what the future will bring. No one can guess whether Xi Jinping will ever go to war. We can only hope that it will be the war that may never happen.